discussion on...Marathon Relay wrap up
posted by post
jtsullivan
Posts: 375
posted: 06-06-18 9:11pm
I like the quantitative analysis, Cory! Don't discredit your forecasting model, as predicting 11 of 26 runners within 5 seconds is impressive considering that collectively we don't run a lot of one-mile races. Also interesting to see year-over-year comparables. Steve with the repeat, Lee one second different, and both Emily and Dana within three seconds, too.

As always, insightful commentary, Ed, and of course, awesome recap, Harvey!
cory
Posts: 232
posted: 06-06-18 1:29pm
I updated spreadsheet with actual times. I haven't age-graded, but it should be noted that the Heartbreakers fielded 14 women on their team!

On average, I over-predicted a Male's time by 6 sec, and under-predicted Female's time by 1 sec. That doesn't tell the whole story, as the standard deviation for Females (10 sec) was much greater than the Males (6 sec). Despite the averages, I was much poorer at predicting the ladies.

My three worst predictions were Shea, Christina, and Sarah. I had 11 runners within +/- 5 sec. Holmes is the only runner's time I got exactly correct.

Overall, we were 48 sec slower than my prediction. The difference in the speed leg from last year to this year gave me an unexpected 37 second buffer.

It was great seeing everyone, and congrats to all on the victory!

A broken clock is correct twice a day...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nroa0tzxCLrq7MFSVB6xiV9yd8j_x7uhXoNDeFqXerw/edit?usp=sharing
EFGroden
Posts: 954
posted: 06-05-18 7:36pm
After the opening few legs, I had the feeling that the relay was ours to lose – meaning, we just needed to get our runners to the line on time and have each perform to their fitness level. And that’s what happened. Seems so easy in retrospect, but winning often does. While the margin of victory, 56 seconds, is substantial, if our runners averaged about 2.5 seconds slower per leg, then we would have been staring at 2nd place again. Keeping your focus and being competitive are the race demands and our runners performed with acute alacrity and verve, even glee.

Another hallmark of this Club was again on full display – a large contingent of coaches, advisors, warmup ponies, warmdown ponies and screamers – playing roles that go beyond cheer squad, but something deeper and much more meaningful for our racers.

Obviously, a fabulous win for the Club. Looking forward to a spectacular summer racing season.
GBraun
Posts: 129
posted: 06-04-18 11:56pm
Yes, quite a WOW moment, everyone! Thanks Harvey for the great write-up. Congrats all. 🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺🍺
Dan_Atk
Posts: 963
posted: 06-04-18 10:11pm
Can someone age-grade the results? Heartbreakers featured a total of zero masters runners. November Project had 2 (both age 40). HFC had 3 seniors in the race (and another on the sidelines, ready to be alternate #1 if the race was close).

HFC also won despite not returning 3 of its 4 fastest males from 2017, and 2 of the 3 fastest females. And I'm sure many who did race were not at 100%. Some other club news came to light at this event -- something that should perhaps be celebrated with a pie the next time Cory returns to the area.
krayner
Posts: 249
posted: 06-04-18 8:37pm
Big WOW moment, congratulations Striders! You guys crushed it, amazing team effort by the Green!
hbrunner
Posts: 546
posted: 06-04-18 7:45pm
The 2018 26 x 1 mi marathon represented a pesky little challenge for this HFC crew. This was an event that we knew we could win, but somehow had not managed to do so. Efficient organization by team captain Dana, combined with some expert analysis by unofficial men’s captain Mark M and tremendous execution by a multi generational team put this baby to rest. Yes, we were finally able to drink from the challenge cup. The event was topped off with a rousing celebration - birthday girl Eileen being the guest of honor.
The strategy in 2018 was to try to remain in the race for the lead throughout the race and still save a bit of strength for the finish. The race began with a MadDog surge to the front to put HFC in the lead from the gun. As in 2017, Tim was ready to grab the baton and ran an excellent leg handing off to our first substitution - MEK for Eric. Mark continued his strong comeback running close to 30 sec faster than last year. Can Man matched MEK with another strong leg and handed off to the inimitable Mimi. Armed with adrenaline Mimi ran the fastest senior women’s mile of the day and handed off to young Shea. Somewhere around this point, Heartbreakers built their biggest lead – a little over two minutes. With seemingly little effort Shea ran the fastest team woman’s leg and handed off to young Dan. Dan, Cory and Eric averaged under 5:00 min and closed the gap. Sarah added another sub 6 min mile and passed off to Todd. Obviously, they had spent hours practicing this handoff at home. The amazing Jack Sullivan then turned back the clock and took 5 seconds off his 2017 time while running one of the best paced miles of the day. As McDermott had predicted “then Lee will get us in the lead” – that was exactly the way it went down. We were halfway through and November Project was done, but we were battling Heartbreakers on just about every leg. Emily, TVO, “Mama Christina C”, Lily, and Rita all kept things close. Andy then coolly laid down a well paced 4:50 taking almost a half a minute off his 2017 time. Scott Grandfield used a fierce last 200m to come in just under 5:30. Dana got her chance in leg 20 and ran nothing less than expected. As an indication of how close the race was, Nicole handed off the 21st leg and was caught in a traffic jam with the Heartbreakers for the lead. With the pressure on, CHowe and Patrick T coolly delivered two determined legs keeping HFC in the race. With 3 “big guns” to follow in Curls, Nick and MadDog the sideline crew was beginning to smell victory. Curls quickly put us in the lead for good. When the handoff to Nick was completed we knew that Heartbreakers would need two sub 4:10 milers to beat us and that wasn’t happening. After the amount of time and personal commitment he put in to the event it was fitting that MadDog broke the tape for us in 2:20.23.
To save folks the math – that’s a 5:21 pace average for the distance! The men averaged 5:03 and the women 5:51. Sully, Mimi and Lee all topped their divisions. Full results are available here:

http://www.srr.org/events/club-challenge-marathon-relay/docs/2018_26x1_results.txt